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MONEY With Melissa Francis

News/Business. Melissa Francis with a breakdown of the day's top stories and their impact on the American Taxpayer. New.

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01:00:00

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San Francisco, CA, USA

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Virtual Ch. 130 (Fox Business)

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mpeg2video

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ac3

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480

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Us 19, Obama 17, Stuart 9, America 9, Romney 7, Pennsylvania 7, California 6, Florida 6, Philadelphia 6, United States 6, Ronald Reagan 5, Barack Obama 5, Ohio 5, Columbus 4, Geico 4, Hillsborough 4, Jason 4, Sandra Smith 4, Scott Rasmussen 3, Crowley 3,
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  FOX Business    MONEY With Melissa Francis    News/Business. Melissa Francis with a breakdown of the day's  
   top stories and their impact on the American Taxpayer. New.  

    November 6, 2012
    5:00 - 6:00pm EST  

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followed by lou dobbs. then i'm going to join neil cavuto all night long. liz: i will be live at nasdaq and times square where i'm joined by bob greifeld, nasdaq group ceo and. here is stuart. stuart: this is it. just hours left at the polling stations. can you imagine the tension in the romney and obama camps as the results start to roll in? look at wall street. stocks straight up. gold straight up. some are calling it an early romney rally. come on, everybody. this is election day. welcome to a special edition of "varney & company". we're about to begin. >> if you got a business, that you didn't build that. somebody else made that happen. >> unchain wall street.
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they going to put y'all back in chains. >> i went to all number of women's group, can you help us find folks. they brought us binders full of women. >> governor we don't have horses and bayonets because the nature of our military is changed. >> jack kennedy lowered taxes. >> oh you're jfk. >> don't boo, vote. voting is the best revenge. stuart: this is exciting. this is decision day. i'm stuart varney and this is a special election day edition of "varney & company". we have an all-star cast spread throughout the studio and across the country for you. gerri willis at romney headquarters in boston. rich edson at obama headquarters in chicago. sandra smith is tracking key swing states for us. scott rasmussen has final polls and a prediction. first our company for the for the hour, former presidential candidate steve forbes and radio host and
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best-selling author, monica crowley. to you first, you're both conservatives. monica, who is going to win. >> governor romney will win the presidency by three percentage points and over 300 votes. stuart: are you being objective? >> i hope not my wishful thinking. over last month and a half i have been to most of the swing states. the energy is palpable. not something easily to discount. we have momentum on our side. between the economy and mitt romney's message and the fact that people are proactively voting for mitt romney, rather than just against barack obama me as huge deal. stuart: steve forbes, who wins? >> the last election i predicted obama would win by sizable margin. this time it is going to be romney, 3 to 5 points. that means an electoral college landslide. i even did it state by state. 321 to 217. stuart: wait a minute. two conservatives here, both of whom obviously want
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mitt romney it win. both you said -- objectively, point to, tell me the reason why you're so confident of such a huge victory, steve? >> well, because one, romney has a positive message. as monica pointed out the base of the gop is enthusiastically behind him. you're getting higher voter turnout. see it in early voting. see it in voting today. republican voters and independents going for romney. independents went for obama in 2008. they're breaking for romney by a good margin. stuart: do you know for a fact there is high turnout of republican voters in early voting today? you know that for a fact? >> yes. from the early reporting especially in swing states, republicans are outperforming democrats. they're outperforming 2008. we're seeing a lot of very strong red precincts around the country, red states and red districts outperforming. you're seeing a decline in the performance among democrats in those strong, blue areas especially in ohio. and what i'm also hearing out of the state of ohio, romney is performing very
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well with catholic democrats. so the interesting thing is, not just republicans are or independents. as steve points out but what we'll see tomorrow, i'm fascinated by this, the crossover what reagan was able to get, blue-collar democrats voting republican. stuart: you're breaking it down by precinct, by county and saying look at these are the people who are coming out more than they did in '08 and these are the people, different precincts who are coming out less than they did in '08? that is your objective viewpoint of why you think romney wins? >> yes. from the reporting we're getting so far today, assuming that it is accurate, yes, it does look like the momentum is with governor romney. stuart: are you feeling pretty good? >> i am. i've been feeling good for several days. one of the things i'm going, one of the things we'll be discussing tomorrow is why did the polls not catch this up swing for romney. stuart: speaking of that, look who we've got. the final "rasmussen poll" of likely voters has romney ahead by one point. 49-48. scott rasmussen jones us now
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from asbury park, new jersey. scott, you're the man that everybody wants it hear from. will you make a prediction based on your last poll that romney wins? >> no. the race is too close to call. i look at the numbers. i keep looking at them to try to convince myself tell me who is going to win but look, we see a pure tossup in ohio. we see a pure toes up in wisconsin. we see governor romney up by two in virginia. we see him up by one nationally. that is not, a good enough set of information to say comfortably who is going to win. now i heard monica and steve talk about increase over 08. absolutely true. in our polling, we're showing 37% of voters nationwide are going to be republicans. that is up five points from four years ago. what we don't know is will the enthusiasm be a little more than or a little less. if it is a little bit more than monica and steve are right. stuart: what you don't know is how many of those people
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will actually vote and how many on the obama side of the equation will not vote, you don't know that from your polling questions? >> right. look, we can tell, for example, that white seniors are much more engaged in the election this year than they were four years ago and we can talk about young voters being less engaged. how much of that will translate into different levels of voting participation we can estimate but we don't know precisely. if there's a larger increase in republican turnout than we're projecting, it will be a two, three, four point victory for governor romney. if there is a lesser increase in republican turnout, president obama will keep his job. stuart: i think just hit the nail on the head. if there is a three, four point extra turnout by those committed republicans it is president romney. not trying to jump the gun. listening to exactly what you have said. scott rasmussen, always a pleasure. thanks so much for joining us, sir. >> thanks, stuart. stuart: i have got a very unusual guest now, someone out of the box, completely different.
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let's go to peter. this young man has develop ad system that gains what people are thinking and saying and judging on twitter. 17 years old. peter, based on your twitter analysis, who is in the lead? >> so, much like scott was just saying the amount of people tweeting republican on twitter has increased huge in the past couple weeks. romney was statistically trending down as compared to obama both volume and sentiment over the past few months. in the past three weeks he has done especially well, the best of his campaign cycle so far. stuart: wait a second. how can you measure the sentiment? i can understand how you can measure number of times romney is tweeted but i don't know how you measure the sentiment that goes behind that tweet. tell me? >> it is a very secret formula. you look at the words in the sentence. you separate clauses and you move out from there and something that i can't really say. stuart: okay. all right. but basically you're telling us that the number of tweets,
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positive tweets about mitt romney has gone sharply higher in the last couple of weeks? >> yeah. it peaked, the beginning of last week. and it's remained pretty much constant entire time. that should tell you good things about early voting too. stuart: peter, we'll have more from you in a moment. this is unusual, a candidate still campaigning on election day. mitt romney made the final stop in pittsburgh, pennsylvania, a short time ago. before that he was in ohio where he spoke with the same enthusiasm that we're noticing. >> we get folks out to vote we'll have the real change we really need in this country. and i'm so excited about the prospects. i got to tell you. i'm buoyed about the spirit of the people across the nation. the enthusiasm, the support, the energy, it is just amazing. thank you. stuart: what did you say, monica? happy warrior? >> governor romney has become a happy warrior. when you run for president, as important as what you say to the american people is how you say it.
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and over the last couple of months governor romney has just been joyful in taking on this cause. stuart: joyful? >> that is what is --. stuart: monica, you're going right over that edge. >> that joyful spirit. reaganesque spirit that will put him over the edge. >> 1980, ronald reagan versus a dour carter, churlish obama. people want a optimist in the office. stuart: we're at both campaign headquarters, starting with gerri willis at romney headquarters in boston. gerry, give me 0 seconds. set the scene for me. >> here is what is going on. these doors will open at romney headquarters in little under an hour. you will see hundreds of people stream in, romney supporters. they are setting up the stage just over my shoulder for hours now. if i could turn around the camera, you would see hundreds of media people, camera operators, reporters just waiting for the big moment. now, we won't see the candidate likely until very late tonight. he is actually listening to returns like everybody else.
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he is doing it tonight from his hotel room and he talked all day long as you said about getting out the vote. look from what i'm hearing on the road, we talk to a lot of people in the field today, there is enthusiasm out there, more people voting. big numbers in northern virginia, 80 to 85%. i think monica is onto something. all that excitement may be with the voters today. stuart: gerri, we'll be back to you later for the mood of headquarters there. rich edson is at obama headquarters in chicago. rich, a brief and quick report from you. >> stuart, similar mood here. change out the candidates and add a game of basketball that president obama played this afternoon. when you talk to the folks within the obama camp no surprise they are confident, putting them in the same category as every candidate in a close election on election day. they say it is getting very tight in florida. they don't have the youth out vote they expected. according to aid to fox news. however they say they should be very tight in florida. could be a night that goes
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to 2:00 a.m. there. they're seeing tight polling everywhere else around the country. they feel very confident what they're seeing so far. back to you. stuart: they didn't get the youth vote out in florida. interesting, jason. our young youth vote follower. will be with us later. rich we'll be back to you later as well. president obama did not get the turnout you might expect in columbus, ohio, last night. even though he had bruce springsteen and jay-z warming up the crowd. the nationwide arena looks half empty from the pictures. sandra smith is tracking swing states in the united states. that would include ohio. sandra, which is the key county, killer county in ohio? >> i have circled them. hamilton is the in the southwest corner this is the county which since gnaty is us whoed. important to know why we're watching that. hamilton where columbus lies. specifically watching cincinnati the poverty rate is very high. among the highest in the state. and by the way, this was a key win for president obama
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in the last election. a democrat won, president obama, for the first time in the last election dating back to 1964. so that will be key to watch tonight. then there's columbus. this of course houses ohio state university, about 60,000 students live in the columbus area. that too is going to be key to watch tonight. as the younger crowd is obviously going to be a big focus there. stuart, as we continue to watch results come in, 7:30 closing as well at that time. we'll have other key swing states. virginia will be the first to close at 7:00. ohio next at 7:30 p.m. tonight. stuart, those are the two key counties to watch in ohio. stuart: sandra, many thanks. so far this evening we've been fairly positive. most of the people on the set that mr. romney is going to win. prepare for sommthing different. joining us now, doug schoen, former clinton pollster. all right, doug, you tell me that obama is going to win that right? >> i think we'll have a very close election. i think steve --. stuart: don't hedge. >> i'm not going to hedge.
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i'm saying he will win the electoral vote and popular vote is much more problematic. what i'm suggesting is, that there has been the movement to governor romney that steve and monica suggested but that give the strength and enduring strength that obama has shown in the swing states, he may well cobble together and i am predicting very narrow obama electoral college victory, combined with effective tie in the popular vote which think would leave us unsatisfied as a nation. stuart: what about the objective evidence that our team has brought to the floor which is, a higher turnout in the early going of people in republican counties, that went for mccain in '08, in state of ohio and plus our twitter guy who is saying been real increase in positive twitter feeds about romney? that is objective evidence that the enthusiasm is with him. >> right. given that the president won by about 4% last time, that is all consistent with my
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prediction of a very, very close popular vote and very narrow electoral vote win for obama. stuart: florida, to romney? >> yes. stuart: pennsylvania, to romney. >> no. obama. stuart: minnesota? >> i still say obama. stuart: wisconsin? >> obama. stuart: really? >> yeah i think virginia, north carolina will probably go to governor romney. but, stuart i will be wrong and first one to admit it. either here or elsewhere, if one of those three or four states which have admittedly tightened up last few days goes to governor romney. stuart: are you on fox all night. no i am not. singularly focused on you and your doings. stuart: what a guy. >> you will. stuart: see you tomorrow. doug schoen. is what we see from the markets the romney rally, is what we see from the romney rally is some been talking about? an economist who is working with the romney campaign joins us next. we will ask him, how do we get real growth to return america to prosperity again and is it a romney rally?
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stuart: dow industrials up 13 points today. that might be interpreted by some as a romney rally. romney wins, he is better for business, stocks go up, that's the theory. also up big today, gold, up $33 an ounce. that might be because president obama will keep printing money and running up debt if he gets elected. who knows? john silvia knows. he is senior economist at wells fargo and also a romney surrogate. what is surrogate, someone who speaks for him? >> someone who they call on from time to time to present an economic point of view. yes. stuart: let's deal with stocks. up 133 in the middle of election day. is that a romney rally? >> i think it is an opportunity to look at the fundamentals because, romney is talking about energy and more energy production, lowers the price of energy, lowers inflation, makes for a stronger dollar, reduces the trade deficit. that is important. less regulation, absolutely key. stuart: you're saying that
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the market went up, stocks went up because investors think they have got an idea that romney wins? >> yes. we've seen this in the past. stuart: where they got that from, i don't know. but that is their up tuition, it is a romney win, therefore it is a romney rally? >> enough investors believe in that story, yes to move the market up. stuart: so why did gold go up, 33 bucks an ounce? what is with that? >> gold this time is looking at a stronger economy, slightly higher inflation over time. less deflation. i think it is important. stuart: steve, what happens tomorrow if romney wins? you think gold goes down? >> i think gold goes down because i think people think that at least over the next year there will be a change in federal reserve policy from what we have. romney will not let that continue. debasing the dollar. i think the stock market will have another kick tomorrow. people realize there will be a pro-business administration. stuart: that's what i wanted to get at, yes. if it is a romney victory tonight, convincing three-point victory, if that is the case you think the dow goes up some more tomorrow?
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>> i think it does,. stuart: big-time? >> big-time. stuart: monica? >> huge psychological impacts if governor romney wins going into tomorrow. you don't have to wait before he is sworn in. you know governor romney will institute pro-growth economic policies as steve points out. change monetary policy. swap out ben bernanke for a real fed chief. all of that will kick in psychologically. you will start to see the economy start to turn around. >> stuart, you know also, you're going to have the asian and european market response before you have the u.s. response. stuart: yes, we are. consensus it is a romney rally for stocks. mr. sylvia, thank you very much indeed. >> thank you. stuart: there was true excitement as more than 20,000 supporters packed a venue for mitt romney in pennsylvania. that was sunday night. sandra smith is tracking swing states for us. sandra, pick out the key county that tells me which way pennsylvania is going tonight. >> stuart, it is the suburbs surrounding the philadelphia area. i circled it in the lower right corner of the state.
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20 electoral votes in the state of pennsylvania. polls close at 8:00. the reason why this is key, philadelphia and its suburbs are key is that a lot of the liberals in the city have moved out to the suburbs to find better schools and more greentrees and as they have done so many of them turned to undecided voters. stuart, i know you're a numbers guy. obama won pennsylvania by 620,000 votes in the last election. 600,000 of them, from the city of philadelphia itself which is very heavily democratic. so all of those swing, undecided votes across the state, very important tonight. stuart: we are watching that county. fascinating that liberals like green trees, san trachlt thank you for that fine piece of information. what about conservatives? america is choosing one of two very different paths today. one of those differences involves government, big or small, which do you prefer? the national debt exploding 5 trillion under the president, just look at that. that is big government spending.
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so which side do you think the judge is on when it comes to the size of government? he is next.
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hahahaha! hooohooo, hahaha! this is awesome! folks who save hundreds of dollars switching to geico sure are happy. i'd say happier than a slinky on an escalator. get happy. get geico. melons!!! oh yeah!! well that was uncalled for. folks who save hundreds of dollars switching to geico sure are happy.
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how happy, ronny? happier than gallagher at a farmers' market. get happy. get geico.
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stuart: some people say this election could come down to simple but fundamental choice, big government or smaller government. who better to turn to that but the judge. all rise, judge andrew napolitano is here. >> you know i would phrase it as this is, and i suspect that my dear friend and fellow new jerseyian steve forbes will agree with me. this is a battle between big government and bigger government, rather than big and small. stuart: let's not just get carried away. >> to approve the groom march to it. stuart: want no government at all. i know you don't. >> i don't want no government at all. i'm realistic. stuart: you a realist. dream on boys.
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>> this is a debate over the role of the federal government in the lives of individual persons. and we haven't seen a debate quite like this perhaps since lyndon johnson rather than against barry goldwater in 196. stuart: tell me how barack obama in his first term and maybe his second term would intrude on the lives of individuals in a way that governmentally inspired and you don't approve of it. >> let's say, say obama wins in your hypothetical and let's say the house of representatives stays republican and president really wants to do everything he can to limit the ability of the people to keep and bear arms. how about an epa regulation that defines bullets as environmentally dangerous and therefore subject to confiscation by federal agents? that doesn't require legislation. and can't be appealed to a federal district court judge. it can only be appealed to the appellate court and epa abuse regulation. the appeal would take years.
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the guns and ammunition confiscated during the appeal would be enormous that is extreme example. stuart: i think you're out on a limb. >> hear me out. this president epa enacted regulations specifically rejected by the house of representatives. because they have yet to be overturned of the federal appeals court they're the law of the land. he is not beneath using an administrative agency to effectuate his will even if it violates the constitution. reason if he couldn't get congress to go along with it that is a great fear. stuart: got me on guns. give me another example. >> he would borrow more and transfer wealth far more than mitt romney would. mitt romney is not against deficit financing. >> not quite the same as government intrusion into the personal lives of individuals. >> yes it is. when the government borrows money and doesn't pay it back, personal wealth goes down because we have to pay the debt service. right now our debt service is little over half a trillion. if barack obama as president
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borrows another five trillion, debt service will be a trillion a year. >> look at army corps of engineers. they go on property. find a mud puddle. say that is wetland. at the put restrictions on of the take it to court. as the judge said, takes years. this president will i issue decrease like a chavez and say if you don't like it, take it to court. >> over the last four years he consistently gone around congress, end-run congress through czars, through bureaucracy, through czars he really exercises power. >> i suspect he is wilsonian, woodrow wilson at heart. he believes the natural rights, personal libt per and private property of the individual can be subordinated to his understanding of the public good and constitution does not permit that. on the contrary it prohibits it. >> look what happened with general motors. that is pure argentina. he got away with it. stuart: he did. >> there to back up what steve said the supreme court refused to get involved.
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they stayed up late one night and came out with a nondecision next day saying we'll not take this. stuart: would you describe yourself as libertarian. >> a severe libertarian. to use governor romney's adjective to describe himself as severe conservative. that is the queen, steve. stuart: it is? worst imitation i ever heard. thank you, judge. >> i hope you're happy in the morning, stuart. stuart: can i get a word in edgewise to the show that bears my name please. >> yep. stuart: thank you. it wouldn't be election day without controversy. first this from a local polling site in philadelphia, was an elementary school. what you're seeing a mural of president obama inside the same room that people are casting votes. while the painting was down in 2009 still a clear violation of voting laws. not surprisingly, republican officials complained. a judge ordered the mural covered up. poll workers complied but, only covered the president's
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face. the obama campaign logo is still clearly visible. check out this video. also from philadelphia. scenes reminiscent of 2008. a black panther, won who was charged with voter intimidation in the last election. he is back, but this time fox news confirmed he is a designated poll watcher. no weapons like in '08 but still, he wasn't talking after being confronted by fox news. >> have you, what is your purpose being here? are you protecting the people inside from what? stuart: same guy. the charges from 2008 against that man were later dropped? anything to add, monica. >> because of that why is that black panther is there at the polling place outside of philadelphia, because eric holder the attorney general dismissed case four years ago. that is why we have this today going on. completely outrageous. stuart: go back to peter. he is following what people
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are saying on twitter. twitter can be a very powerful tool to find out what people are saying. what is your latest twitter revelation, peter? >> it is interesting, issue of lines, rather than economy, rather than health care has taken over twitter in terms of the most negative sentiment election. stuart: lines being raised as issue on twitter by hundreds of thousands? >> yeah. close to that. if not those numbers especially in key swing states. bense vain, colorado, ohio, people talking about four to five hour waits just to vote. twitter has impact on the voting process. thanks very much indeed. what do you think the candidates are feeling right now? what do you think they're feeling as they watch things unfold tonight? can you imagine the emotion? well there is a unique story behind how ronald reagan found out he won back in 1980. mike reagan is next. he will tell us the story. the moment when ronald reagan became mr. president. you know it is fun, always, when mike reagan joins us,
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stuart: this morning on "varney & company" i asked nra executive vice president wayne laperriere about gun ownership and what happens if president obama is reelected. listen to this. >> we've been doing everything we can to get the truth out about what's going to happen to the second amendment if president obama gets reelected. we'll see anti-second amendment rampage like we've never seen before. stuart: i also asked laperriere if gun voters are single issue voters? i used signs as an example. they're from the jersey shore after the destruction of sandy. homeowners posting signs, saying quote, looters will be shot, bodies thrown in river. here is his response to that. >> what is going on right now, you just talked about it. go sit in one of those houses in the middle of
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night, you're cold. you have no power. no electricity. no water at all. and see if a firearm makes you safer or not. stuart: all right. laperriere went on to say, yes gun owners could sway the vote in parts of key swing states. interesting. imagine how this must feel. you campaign for literally years. you go to the polls. you put an x next to your own name. then you wait around all day, deep into the night and suddenly you are mr. president. you won. michael reagan knows what we're talking about, having lived through it with his father back in 1980. he joins us from los angeles. were you there when they said, mr. president, you won, were you there? >> actually i wasn't there. if i was there i would have been in the shower with my father which would have been a little nasty. that is how he found out. stuart: he was in the shower? >> he was in the shower. he was in the shower. nancy comes over and says,
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honey the president is on the phone. he says tell i'm i'm in the shower nancy says he wants to talk to you. he said, my god, i will get back to him when i get out of the of shower. nancy says, no. get us out shower and answers the phone holding a towel. that is 5:00 in the afternoon here in l.a. and, jimmy carter says, congratulations, you're the new president of the united states of america. he was like, really? stuart: where you? >> that whole night was a little different for everybody. because normally we go to the jorgensen's for dinner. go to the century plaza, have a joyous nights watch states go blue. we were blue, not red. we started celebrating very, very early. that is how my father found out. hello to monica crowley. she and i have a lot in common. this morning she got up and canceled her brother-in-law's vote. i got up and canceled my brother's vote. >> that's right. it has to be done.
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great to see you. >> it has to be done. it has to be done. i've been doing that for years. stuart: trying to get to grips with that moment which i think is unique in american politics. when, you literally campaigned for years. it is a grueling process and suddenly, there is a moment when power is transferred to you, and you are the president of the united states of america. are you telling me that your father, ronald reagan, just took it in stride, wrap ad towel around himself and carried on as if it was normal? nah. >> really, wait a minute. yes. he took it in that way and it really didn't hit him until the night of the inaugural. my wife colleen and i were the ones hosting him in his first inaugural ball. he walks into the greenroom at the hilton in washington, d.c. and turns and looks at the mirror to straighten his white tie out to get ready to be introduced by my wife and i. he turned straight around and he jumped straight up in
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the air that that night, clicked his heels, i'm the president of the united states of america. and so that's when it hit him, not the night he was elected but the night we were ready to introduce him as president of the united states there at the hilton. stuart: were you in the house, the same house as your dad when he found out in the shower that he was the president? you were there in the house? >> oh, no. i was on my way to century plaza to get ready to watch the states turn blue. we had this whole program of watching states turn blue. having dinner. all these things, waiting for a very long night, remember, up until my dad won by 10 points it was close. we were behind going into the weekend. we started to surge coming out of the weekend into monday. i was just coming back from pennsylvania and ohio. i had been on 66 airplane rides in 19 states in month of october. same with my sister maureen. we hadn't seen each other. we were prepared for a long night and bam, just all of a sudden we looked at each other, my god, he won. it was just, maureen, my god,
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my dad's the president of the united states of america. three days later we had secret service protection. stuart: the surge came right at the very end, right? i mean election was on a tuesday. as late as weekend. >> monica saying to you all day long. that surge at the end. those reagan democrats came over and cale over for ronald reagan right at the very end, going out of sunday, into monday, into tuesday. and the election. up until then it was a toss-up, nobody knew. everything was tight. everybody was nervous. wanting to watch the states turn. 5:00 in the afternoon it was over and my father won by 10 points. stuart: mike, hold on for one second, listen to what monica crowley will tell us about richard nixon on election night when he became president in 1968. >> just quickly about what mike said about that night. 5:00 california time the president, president carter calls, president reagan to concede the race and
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democrats were furious at him because the whole western part of the nation had not voted yet. president nixon, he ran in 1960 for the presidency and lost. he ran eight years later, 1968 and won. what he told me about election day was so fascinating, stuart. he said on election day, said who the hell knows. he got in the car and had his driver to drive hum around and he could see outside. he could see people but they couldn't see inside. so they had no idea it was richard nixon in the car kind of driving around. he said what was going through his mind, not, did i win. what was going through his mind, how much of these people did i reach. stuart: very interesting. very interesting. mike, i know you're still there. >> i can go with that, for years i'm still looking for people that voted against my father. my friend zack, says 300 electoral votes for mitt romney today. stuart: now i want you to tell me the margin of victory for president obama in california today?
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>> [laughter]. i would say, probably, probably 5 points. stuart: that's it, five points? >> in california. remember, we have a ballot measure, stuart, in california where the people of california are being asked to vote on a ballot measure to require important stars to wear condoms. -- porn stars. i'm telling you we're voting to appoint a county assessor because they arrested our county assessor. stuart: did mike reagan -- >> how is that in new jersey working. >> desperate to change the subject here. did you just put california in play, mike reagan? i think you did. >> i'm saying obama will win by five points. stuart: we'll leave it at that. shall we, mike. you're moving to new jersey. >> this state is blue and getting bluer unfortunately. stuart: thanks for the great soreries. excellent stuff and we appreciate it. >> you got it. stuart: we have long lines
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at polling places in florida today. that's another key swing state and sandra smith is tracking those states for us. so the latest on florida and the key county, the county i guess you could say. the what is the key? >> hillsborough county which tampa is housed is what we're watching. of course, miami, orlando, tampa all key as far as hispanic vote. the reason why we're watching tampa and hillsborough county if i can get this to fire up here. this is the tampa bay area. this gave a huge boost to president obama back in 2008. remember, the reason florida's going to be closely watched because president obama won in '08. president bush won in '04. this is a swing state. this is major swing county within that swing state. and stuart, so important that the republicans held their convention there. they have been really fighting for the votes there. this will be, hillsborough county will be the one to watch. stuart: hillsborough, we're watching it. thank you very much, sandra. steve, i have got 10 seconds. you've been in the position waiting for a vote, results of a vote. tension must be
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extraordinary. >> it is. when you get it you're sort of numb. takes awhile to register. and since i lost more than i won, maybe i should have taken a shower when --. stuart: politics is ex-trorled nary game. to win costs so much and to lose so, not money, the time and effort that you put in. >> it is 24/7 and you take it personally. you can't help it. stuart: i bet you do. once again young voters are expected to support president obama by a very wide margin. why would that be? will as many vote this time around? jason who wrote obama zombies, a book about the blind loyalty the young have for this president, jason is next. i'm a conservative investor. i invest in what i know. i turned 65 last week. i'm getting married. planning a life. there are risks, sure. but, there's no reward without it. i want to be prepared for the long haul. i see a world bursting with opportunities. india, china,
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stuart: huge support for president obama from young people again. in last gallop tracking poll, voters support president
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obama under 29 support obama by 19 point margin. author of obama zombies, jason mattera. why such a huge gap, tell me? >> many things play into it. this is tactically very good for romney. obama's lead among voters four years ago was double that 19 point margin. even though it will be a substantial number of young people cast the vote for barack obama, it is not going to be nearly the turnout if these, if the polling is correct, as there was four years ago, and younger voters were an indispensable part of his winning coalition in 2008. and i think it's going to help deal the -- seal the deal for mitt romney in many close states. stuart: let me reverse the question. i asked why this big gap. the real question is why has the gap shrunk so much from four years ago? explain that one. >> yes. there is just not the same enthusiasm and that is
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because you have an underemployment rate of amongst 1829-year-olds of nearly 16%. once they graduate college it is very hard for them to find a job. we still have tuition prices that are soaring. all these factors are coming together. they can look at the track record of barack obama and it is not very good. they understand we're in an economic malaise. therefore they're less enthusiastic going and casting a vote for hope and change and such empty rhetoric because now there is a record. you know, it is still, it is mind boggling that you will still have a good 20 to, 15% margin of victory for barack obama amongst younger voters. as i talk about in obama zombies. ignorance doesn't make sense most of the time. neither does buying allegiance. moving forward the republican party needs to take a page out of the obama playbook. needs to establish bases on college campuses. needs to turn their events into entertainment style stops like barack obama does. and needs to make
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conservative ideas more palatable idea to younger voters. talk about how capitalism created all this awesomely awesome technological devices they can't live without each and every day. stuart: jason, hold on a second, i want to ask the company members here, why it is the gap narrowed but still 19 points in favor of president obama amongst young people. why do young people go for this president so strongly still, steve? >> i think it is because they still don't understand real free markets again. i think romney has got to do a better job. in fact everyone in the next four years, i wrote a book about it, freedom manifesto, free markets are moral and big government isn't. people don't understand the basis of this system, how profoundly important it is. they're not taught anymore about checks and balances. i don't mean about money. origins of this government. they're not talk anymore. stuart: free markets and the constitution never talked about and never taught in terms of liberty and freedom and, never talk like that.
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>> the ability to innovate. you have to connect the dots. you want to choose your own doctor? you need freedom to do it. you don't want the post office to do it for you. >> not just individual liberty that is not being taught. it is economic freedom that is not being taught. most young people are idealistic, because they are idealistic because they haven't held a job and pay taxes. as soon as they get out into the real world. >> they don't realize art at thistries is in the marketplace. what job did with apple in commerce. stuart: before we close on this one. what will be the turnout amongst young people compared to 8, fast. >> 23 million young voters turned out in '08. i think it will much less than that this time around. stuart, i know you did mention that obama obama is playing basketball today, right as he watches election results i think his sports abilities, is also something that attracts him to young voters. he is playing basketball. maybe panel knows that, how is that different from any
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other tuesday? >> good question. stuart: obama zombies. thanks for joining us. we'll check out the turnout when we get the full result as bit later. let's go back to peter. he is tracking twitter for us. twitter is mostly young people, isn't it? what are twitter feeds from youngsters telling us, peter? >> amazing thing happening. if you compare the historical data last election and this election in terms of twitter data and factor change in twitter demographics overtime the average twitter user has gotten older. if you factor that in, you're seeing lot more older people tweeting politically today than four years ago. median age increased which i'm sure you're going to see in the average voter turnout tomorrow. stuart: how do you know that people are tweeting political stuff? are you keying on key words? >> yes. you follow, romney, obama, election 2012, hashtag i voted any of that kind of stuff. stuart: can tell by volume? >> and get rough demographic statistics based off their user. and, you can extrapolate the
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date from there. stuart: give meet big picture at this moment. what are people saying on twitter now? can you characterize it? >> yes. romney was doing huge in the past two weeks. very, very well. volume was the biggest so far. he, he ceded to the president past couple days. however he and the president are dead-even right now. stuart: with that algorithm you will be very rich young man. pete, thank you very much. here is the election day highlight reel. let's have look. who is going to win. >> turnout will decide the election and mitt will win tonight. >> blurt it out. i think obama and i think, gee, i think romney. >> i'm calling it for mitt romney. i think electoral count of 295. >> president obama wins, he gets over 300 electoral college votes. >> governor romney will win the presidency today by 3 percentage points and over00 electoral votes. >> this time it will be romney, be 3 to five points. that means an electoral college landslide.
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>> i am predicting a very narrow obama electoral college victory, combined with an effective tie in the popular vote. stuart: i got to say, this is the most exciting election day that i have ever been through and i've been through 10 in the united states. you? >> yeah. very exciting. although there is a very eerie kind of subdued vibe that we haven't experienced i think in the last couple of election cycles. people are excited but they don't want to get too excited because who the hell knows. stuart: you think you will jipgs it? you want romney to win and you will jinx it publicly. >> notice i'm wearing red. you visualize it, live it, you can dream it, make it happen. stuart: monica, steve, a pleasure. thank you very much for joining us on a very special day, we appreciate it. this election is very personal to me. i'll tell you why, by taking you back 40 years. that is my take and it's next. en we gomarried. i had three kids. and she became the full time mother of three.
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it was soccer, and ballet, and cheerleading, and baseball. those years were crazy. so, as we go into this next phase, you know, a big part of it for us is that there isn't anything on the schedule.
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>> i want to take you back a few years, would like to tell you why this election is personal, white means something to me. i came to new york to start the first news network on cable. i have two children and a house. i was not struggling but i was not financially comfortable. i remember my first paycheck after ronald reagan cut my tax rate. it was a wonderful surprise, have a lot more take-home money. president reagan lifted into the middle class. allow me to live my version of the american dream. as an immigrant from europe, it just felt liberating, seemed like i had personal and economic growth. i think my experience then there's a limit to america now. what happened 30 years ago? i will tell you. anotheand entrepreneur who riskt
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all on a network. ithe presence of liberated mone. the open, generous and welcoming culture. here is what he was not, government. government did not build the news channel, did not make the money, government just temporarily got out of the way. you see where i'm going with this? america's making a decision, more government or change to private enterprise. more europe or unveil the real america. i think you can tell what i am pushing for. now a man who played a big help in helping me for all those years. his name is lou dobbs and he begins now.